LSEG data cited by Reuters point to an exceptional season. After nearly 54% second-quarter growth—or about 35% excluding certain AI-related investment gains—the market expects another strong increase.

Powerful but concentrated earnings

Growth is uneven. Consumer staples and real estate, which are less connected to AI, have much weaker estimates.

The index can look exceptionally healthy while many companies experience ordinary growth.

Chipmakers remain at the centre

US semiconductor earnings are expected to rise about 136% year on year in the third quarter, after roughly 158% in the second, according to LSEG.

Even very strong results can disappoint if expectations were higher. Rising data-centre expenditure increases demands for durable end-customer revenue.

The decisive test: from spending to returns

The question is whether AI investment improves margins sustainably. Large groups must show that assistants, cloud services and professional tools generate enough revenue.

That test extends to chips, data centres, energy and software. If productivity gains take longer, expanding budgets will face more scepticism.

What concentration means for savings

Capitalisation-weighted indices give greater weight to the most valuable companies, so AI exposure may be higher than it appears in a diversified fund.

This is neither a buy recommendation nor a sell signal. Number of holdings is not the same as diversification of economic drivers; rates, inflation and energy also matter.

AI is now a major source of US profit growth but also a source of dependence on a few firms. This article is general information, not investment advice.